Michel Platini and Jack Warner are emerging as the kingmakers in Fifa's forthcoming presidential election, which looks increasingly certain to be contested between Sepp Blatter – the incumbent – and Mohamed bin Hammam.
The Guardian disclosed on Thursday that Bin Hammam is preparing to mount a challenge against the incumbent Fifa president and that he will reveal his hand within 10 days. The Qatari is firmly expected to press ahead with long-standing plans to unseat Blatter and his key battlegrounds will be the Caribbean islands, North and Central America and Europe.
Winning Warner's support would be crucial to Bin Hammam's hopes of ending Blatter's 13-year reign over world football. Warner is the Concacaf president and his region is, in terms of Fifa politics, more significant even than the Latin American confederation that contains Brazil and Argentina. That is because he wields an influence over 35 votes in the election at the Fifa congress on 31 May and 1 June, compared with the 10 votes from South America.
Such is Warner's notorious inscrutability that both Blatter – despite his long-term alliance with the Trinidadian – and Bin Hammam will need to court him over the coming weeks.
If the experience of England's 2018 World Cup bid is any guide, then neither can be sure of Warner's vote until it has been stuffed into the ballot box. He faithfully promised both David Cameron and Prince William that he would vote for England last December, before switching his allegiance at the last minute.
Warner does not speak for all 35 votes and faces problems in his own constituency. Key figures inside Jamaica's federation are growing uneasy about the distribution of television rights, and Antigua and Barbuda have clashed with the Concacaf president over governance. Even so, Warner is a canny operator and will make clear that his region represents a sixth of all the available votes.
Intriguingly, observers assess that Concacaf's recent attempt to request a fourth qualification slot for the World Cup – currently it has three automatic places and a play-off place – was an effort to inspect the political map. "Now Warner knows who's against him," said one. "Asia, Africa and, clearly, Uefa."
Platini, the head of European football, is a potential barrier to Bin Hammam's ambitions. He has rejected urgings from the Qatari to challenge Blatter after declaring he would stand uncontested this month for a second term as Uefa president.
Platini intends to be elected Fifa president in 2015, and Bin Hammam taking over as head of the organisation would complicate those plans for the former France captain. This means Platini is likely to urge his closest allies in the European federations to swing behind Blatter.
"If Bin Hammam goes for the presidency, Platini has a problem because he will be out for eight years," said one senior figure in football politics, reflecting the likelihood that Bin Hammam would serve two terms. "He will be well into his 60s by then. Will people want to elect him for his first term then?"
South America is Bin Hammam's heartland, where it is believed he enjoys overwhelming support. Informed observers also suggest that much of Africa, with its 53 votes, Oceania (11) and Asia (46) could be persuaded to support the challenger's campaign.
With almost 12 weeks still to go before the election date – and with Bin Hammam still not even officially declared – it is impossible to call, even for the contenders themselves. "There are a lot of personal feelings going into it," another senior figure in football political circles said. "You don't know how deep the personal politics of it run; all the snubs and the bickering over the years. It will all count."
Another football grandee had some advice for Bin Hammam, who has so far been careful not to criticise Blatter, on how to conduct his campaign. "With two months to go it's got to be a campaign against the incumbent," the insider said. "He has to explain why he is better than Blatter."
Whether the election is fought over policies or personalities, the true direction of the tide will not be known until the final hours of the race. "People like to back a winner in football," said one highly placed observer. "No one will want to commit themselves until they know who will win."