There's a case to be made that if the United States faces any challenge in qualifying for the 2010 World Cup, it comes in the currently underway semifinal round, not the final round.
While the level of competition certainly rises in the final, it's not enough to counter the four extra opportunities to gain points. As I argued in this space on Tuesday, CONCACAF opponents are a weak bunch and -- even with the likely presence of Mexico, Honduras, and Costa Rica in the final round of qualification -- the United States has a better chance to finish third (or, worst case, fourth, which would mean a playoff with the 5th-placed team in South America) in a group of six then second in a group of four.
This revelation makes Trinidad & Tobago's recent run of good form, discussed today in an article on FIFA.com, potentially troubling. The United States share a semifinal group with the Soca Warriors, who easily dispatched Cuba, 3-1, last week -- in Fidel's backyard no less.
After struggling to beat Bermuda to qualify for the semifinal round, the Caribbean side, which jumped up 10 sports to #92 in the FIFA rankings, played without its stars Kenwyne Jones and Dwight Yorke and now sits atop the group based on a superior goal differential to the United States. T&T would seem to be peaking at the right time, and could, in theory, make the U.S.'s march to the final round difficult.
If there is a silver lining in T&T's play, it's that the squad's solid play could do some of the United States' work. Remember, the Americans don’t need to win the group; they merely have to come in second. Assuming form holds -- admittedly a risky proposition in the world of international soccer -- and the U.S. dispatches Cuba on September 6, while T&T takes care of Guatemala, both sides will suddenly be six points clear at the top of the group. The class, in other words, will have quickly risen to the top.
The victor of the showdown four days later between the U.S. and T&T, then, will likely need just one win in its final three games to qualify for the finals. Even if Bob Bradley's team trips up and loses to the Soca Warriors at Toyota Park on September 10, it will have six points -- at least three more then either Cuba or Guatemala -- and two home matches (in cold climates) out of its last three. You can be sure US federation mogul Sunil Gulati will take those odds.
Qualification for the final stage isn't assured until the math teacher sings, but by playing well, Trinidad is in many ways helping its northern counterpart. Dance on, Soca Warriors, dance on.